The Moat Became the Anchor

This has already been a crazy week in the world of AI. The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI missed its monthly revenue targets multiple times this year. The company also missed its internal goal of one billion weekly active ChatGPT users by year-end 2025, and OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar reportedly told colleagues she’s worried the company can’t fund its compute commitments if growth doesn’t pick up. OpenAI called the story “ridiculous.”

Twenty-four hours later, OpenAI’s models went live on AWS Bedrock. Codex and a new product called Bedrock Managed Agents came with them. Sam Altman appeared at the San Francisco launch event by recorded video, as he was in Oakland where the Musk trial had just opened.

Microsoft’s exclusivity stopped working a while ago. Enterprises that wanted OpenAI had to come to Azure, and enterprises already on AWS picked Anthropic on Bedrock instead. Anthropic’s revenue more than tripled in six months while OpenAI’s growth slowed. Azure’s “competitive advantage” was starving the company Microsoft owned a piece of.

They rewrote the deal. Microsoft’s license to OpenAI IP is non-exclusive through 2032, the AGI trigger clause is gone, and Microsoft stops paying revenue share to OpenAI. OpenAI keeps paying Microsoft 20% through 2030 with a new cap. Azure stays “primary cloud partner” with first-ship rights, and that’s it.

Metaphorically, Microsoft monetized the end of its own moat. OpenAI bought distribution by giving up future Azure cash. AWS got the most-asked-for model on the planet without spending a marketing dollar.

As best I can tell, the unit economics still don’t work. OpenAI is on pace to burn $25 billion this year against a $30 billion revenue target, and compute commitments now total roughly $600 billion across Azure, AWS, and Oracle. The AWS deal expands surface area for revenue, but it does not fix the math.

Every company needs a Claw strategy. Do you have one?

Author’s note: This is not a sponsored post. I am the author of this article and it expresses my own opinions. I am not, nor is my company, receiving compensation for it. This work was created with the assistance of various generative AI models.

About Shelly Palmer

Shelly Palmer is the Professor of Advanced Media in Residence at Syracuse University’s S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications and CEO of The Palmer Group, a consulting practice that helps Fortune 500 companies with technology, media and marketing. Named LinkedIn’s “Top Voice in Technology,” he covers tech and business for Good Day New York, is a regular commentator on CNN and writes a popular daily business blog. He's a bestselling author, and the creator of the popular, free online course, Generative AI for Execs. Follow @shellypalmer or visit shellypalmer.com.

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