As I’m sure you’ve already heard, YouTube has secured multi-year exclusive global rights to the Academy Awards ceremony from 2029 through 2033, beginning with the 101st Oscars. ABC, which has carried the broadcast for decades, retains rights through 2028. The deal includes red carpet coverage, behind-the-scenes content, and the Governors Ball, all available live and free to viewers worldwide as well as to YouTube TV subscribers in the United States.
Broadcast television just lost a critical content pillar.
Here is the math. In 2024, 75 of the 100 most-watched primetime telecasts were sports events, with the NFL accounting for 45 of them. The Oscars, Grammys, Tonys, and a handful of other live events filled out the remainder of what actually drew audiences to broadcast TV. The regular primetime lineup (and every other daypart) has been in ratings decline for decades. If we are honest, the UX for traditional television has devolved almost to the point of unwatchability. Local news and regulatory carriage requirements will keep the lights on at affiliates for a while longer, but the national broadcast model depends on tentpoles. All other programming is just there to separate the commercial pods.
The NFL’s current broadcast contracts include opt-out clauses after the 2029 season, and the league is widely expected to exercise them. When that happens, Netflix, Amazon, YouTube, and Apple will be at the table with money and reach that ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox will not be able to match. If Hollywood’s oldest institution can leave broadcast for streaming, the NFL can too – and as goes the NFL, so goes broadcast TV.
People have been saying “Broadcast TV is dead” for more than 20 years. Clearly, reports of its demise have been greatly exaggerated, but this deal is truly the beginning of the end. Without tentpoles, the economics of broadcast television simply do not work.
There is a chance the NFL decides that legacy media still has a place in the mix, but I would not count on it. If you thought the Oscar telecast was too long before, just wait.
Author’s note: This is not a sponsored post. I am the author of this article and it expresses my own opinions. I am not, nor is my company, receiving compensation for it. This work was created with the assistance of various generative AI models.