On January 19, 2025, 170 million U.S. TikTok users woke up to a new world as ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese parent company, shuttered the app in compliance with the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (PAFACA), which mandated a sale of its U.S. operations to a U.S.-based company by this date.
Not to worry, by noon, President-elect Donald Trump said he planned to issue an executive order to allow time for ByteDance to work with the new administration on a long-term solution. This situation is dynamic, and I expect many twists and turns in the coming days. While U.S.-based content creators and SMBs breathe a sigh of relief, let’s look at how this could have played out for users, businesses, the creator community, and national security.
National Security: Real Threat or Political Theatre?
The driving force behind banning TikTok has been national security. Critics of ByteDance argue that its ties to the Chinese government and China’s 2017 National Intelligence Law—which compels companies to cooperate with state intelligence operations—pose unacceptable risks. U.S. officials fear that TikTok could be leveraged for espionage or influence campaigns, though no public evidence has confirmed such misuse.
Opponents of the ban argue that the data TikTok collects—preferences, location, and behavioral trends—is no different from what Facebook, Instagram, and other platforms gather. Much of this data is commercially available, and critics claim the security concerns are a pretext for broader geopolitical tensions. Still, the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the ban highlights how sensitive the issue of data security has become in the U.S.-China rivalry.
Back in June 2022, FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr gave the CEOs of Apple and Google until July 8, 2022 to respond to his open letter asking Mr. Cook and Mr. Pichai to remove TikTok from their respective app stores. In the letter, Commissioner Carr stated, “It is clear that TikTok poses an unacceptable national security risk due to its extensive data harvesting being combined with Beijing’s apparently unchecked access to that sensitive data.”
He went on to enumerate some of the data he believed was being captured by TikTok (search, browsing histories, keystroke patterns, biometric identifiers such as faceprints, text, images, and videos). In other words, the exact same data that most big tech companies (Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, Snapchat, LinkedIn, YouTube, Google/Alphabet, etc.) collect, use, buy, and sell. The letter suggested that “the list of personal and sensitive data goes on from there.”
I’ve spent time with Brendan Carr, and I know him to be fair-minded and thoughtful. But back then, I thought this letter was simply political grandstanding and fear-mongering because it didn’t mention the dangers of any other entities (foreign or domestic) collecting and using our “sensitive personal data.”
An Enduring Cyberwar
Most security experts agree that we are engaged in an enduring cyberwar with China (as well as several other countries), not to mention motivated hackers and their related communities. It is beyond naive to believe that China—or any cyber-adversary—would need TikTok data to accomplish what the PAFACA purports to fear. Importantly, there is not a single documented case of any country or nation-state using user preference or location data to hack or harm anyone. Yet we no longer have the space to bring this up or even ask the question. Security is about prevention. Once the government posed the loaded question, “Does ByteDance give TikTok data to the Chinese government?” the ban became inevitable.
The larger issue is that there are no meaningful federal laws protecting our data from falling into the hands of hostile governments. Robust, legitimate data marketplaces—and even more robust illicit ones—exist where everything about everyone is bought and sold. PAFACA does nothing to address this reality, making the argument that this is a national security issue hard to see as anything more than political theater.
Data Privacy First Principles
I’m up for a debate about weaponized data, but TikTok is not a good place to start. If we want to protect our citizenry from unscrupulous data exploiters, let’s start with the U.S.-based credit bureaus who have complete unfettered access to 100% of the data they need to destroy people’s credit with no legal recourse. Let’s look at the illegal use of location-based data in the context of search history for denial of insurance coverage, health benefits, or increased cost of money. There are so many truly abusive uses of data that are never spoken about—why is anyone even thinking about “surveillance” in the context of ad-placement and user content choices? If you think about data privacy for just a minute, you’ll realize that the data TikTok gathers is used for only one thing—maximum user engagement—which is actually dangerous… but in a different way.
There Is a Danger
TikTok’s algorithm exploits the brain’s dopamine system, reinforcing addictive behaviors, especially in adolescents. Studies have linked excessive use to anxiety, depression, and reduced attention spans, with experts warning of its role as a “dopamine machine.” Although there are hundreds of reputable studies available, research papers found in Frontiers in Psychology and European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry highlight the platform’s reward system as a driver of compulsive behavior and mental health issues. If TikTok warrants regulation, its impact on developing brains and cognitive health is the most compelling argument.
The Winners
The obvious winners in a U.S. without TikTok are Meta Platforms (Instagram, Facebook), Alphabet (YouTube), and, to a lesser extent, X (formerly Twitter) and other social video platforms. The creative community has to go somewhere, Instagram and YouTube will benefit the most.
The Losers
The biggest losers in the wake of a potential TikTok ban are small businesses and the creator community, whose livelihoods were built on the platform’s unmatched ability to connect with audiences. TikTok provides an unparalleled opportunity for small businesses to reach millions organically, bypassing large marketing budgets, while creators monetize their work through partnerships, sponsored posts, and TikTok’s Creator Fund. For many, it isn’t just a social platform—it is an economic lifeline.
TikTok’s algorithm, uniquely effective at surfacing niche content to vast audiences, empowers small businesses and creators to punch above their weight. The absence of TikTok would create a void that platforms like Instagram and YouTube could not fully replicate. For these creators and businesses, a potential ban isn’t just inconvenient—it’s an existential threat to their income and growth.
The economic fallout extends far beyond individual users. TikTok reported that small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) using the platform contributed $24.2 billion to the U.S. GDP in 2023, supporting over 224,000 jobs. Its ecosystem was a driving force for innovation and entrepreneurship, helping businesses reach targeted audiences through engaging, organic content. A ban would disrupt this thriving economic engine, forcing SMBs to navigate fragmented alternatives that lack TikTok’s unique reach and engagement. If banned, creators and businesses would scramble to rebuild their strategies, as billions of dollars in economic activity and tens of thousands of jobs hang in the balance.
The Future of TikTok
TikTok’s fate now lies in the hands of the new administration. Will the platform be resurrected under new ownership, or will it remain a casualty of geopolitical posturing? While the arguments for national security dominate headlines, the broader conversations about data privacy, mental health, and economic impact remain unresolved. If nothing else, the temporary TikTok ban highlighted the urgent need for comprehensive data privacy laws and a thoughtful approach to the regulation of algorithms that shape our behaviors. Whether TikTok fully returns or is eventually shuttered, the real question is whether policymakers will seize this moment to address the systemic issues that make platforms like TikTok both indispensable and dangerous. The clock is ticking.
Author’s note: This is not a sponsored post. I am the author of this article and it expresses my own opinions. I am not, nor is my company, receiving compensation for it. This work was created with the assistance of various generative AI models.